A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
